Budget Analysis 2021-22: Dr. Atiur Rahman

Budget Analysis 2021-22 Dr. Atiur Rahman

The Budget is Anchored on Bangladesh’s Stunning Macroeconomic Stability

Vaccinating maximum people at any cost is the most sensible economic strategy of this time. The return on the expenditure for collecting and distributing vaccines will come back in multiples from a rapidly recovering economy. We, therefore, want smart diplomacy, appropriate coordination at the national and international levels, and policy priorities with this intention in mind.

The strength of our macroeconomy is a big help to us. Besides, there is no alternative to public awareness to follow the hygiene rules. We should all wear masks, maintain social distance and always stay clean. If we can spread this message widely among all and achieve a culture of compliance, we can certainly get some relief from this crisis.

For this, the government, as well as the society, should ensure equal efforts. Pay close attention to the most affected border districts. More money and health-related services will have to be provided in the most vulnerable areas. We have a strong legacy of tackling the crisis together, and we want to see the replay of that glorious legacy again. Money or budget is not a big deal here; the big issue is social activism for survival.

Stunning Macroeconomic Stability

The 50th budget of Bangladesh derives strength from its hard-earned macro-economic stability. Despite Covid-19, Bangladesh has been maintaining reasonably better economic growth rates. This was 5.2 percent during the 2019-20 fiscal year and is expected to be 6.1 percent in the current fiscal year. Based on this strength, the budget aspires to achieve a 7.2 percent growth rate in the upcoming fiscal year. However, this aspiration can only be realized if we can bring the coronavirus under total control. This requires a huge effort in vaccinating nearly a hundred million people at the least. And that too within a short time.

The good thing is that the investment-GDP ratio has increased from 32.2 percent to 33.1 percent during the last fiscal year from the previous year, despite the pandemic. The remittance will be 24 billion-plus USD this fiscal year compared to 18 billion USD in the last fiscal year. The export sector has picked up its growth momentum mainly due to the reopening of the western economies. The RMG owners have started getting new orders, and they expect this Christmas will be much more vibrant for their customers. So, the industry will hopefully regain its usual momentum by October.

Following this momentum, the forward and backward linkage industries and businesses are likely to gear up to provide more employment to the masses. Another strength of Bangladesh’s macroeconomy is its capacity to control inflation, which has been between 5-6 percent for more than a decade or so. During this fiscal year, there has been phenomenal growth in liquidity injection by the central bank through easing most policy rates in addition to several refinance facilities. Yet, the budget projects inflation at a rate of 5.3 percent in the next fiscal year. This may be possible as the economy is still operating below full capacity and is yet to be heated. Also, there has been significant erosion of income of the vulnerable, including the middle class, due to the pandemic leading to a fall in domestic demand.

The import costs of oil and other necessary consumables have also been subdued. The growth of import has not been fully recovered. So, the risk of imported inflation remains low. As such the size of the foreign exchange reserve has been increasing, providing space for the government to invest more in mega infrastructure projects. The budget clearly reflects this growth supportive allocation of public resources with a hope that once completed, these megaprojects will turn out to be ‘game changers’ in enhancing both foreign and domestic investments, leading to increased employment. The challenge, of course, lies in easing the cost of doing business and providing necessary support to forward and backward linkage service providers for keeping the flow of investment continuously robust.

Support for ‘Made in Bangladesh’

This budget provides several tax waivers and holidays for domestic industries, mostly small and one-person owned companies, including women entrepreneurs who will enjoy Taka seven million as the threshold for turnover taxation. In addition, many electronic, electric, agricultural processing industries, and motor car industries have been given longer-term tax holidays.

The health sector entrepreneurs will also receive similar benefits if they establish hospitals outside Dhaka. Also, exporters, including apparel industries, have benefited from further reduction of taxes at source and easing of VAT collections. All these tax facilities aim to encourage those who are willing to push the agenda of ‘Made in Bangladesh’.

Let us look at some sectoral allocations to understand the focus of the proposed budget better.

Sectoral Allocations

The budget has been supportive of all three pillars of Bangladesh’s success in sustaining a persistent inclusive growth process.

Firstly, the allocation for agriculture has risen by 7.3 percent. In addition to investment in increased mechanization of the sector, several new initiatives like 32 home gardens of nutritional vegetable in each union, market for farmers in 41 districts, regional SAARC seed bank, and revamping digital marketing platform for the agricultural products auger well for agricultural transformation.

The central bank’s regulation to allow rescheduling of agricultural loans without any down payment is another move in the right direction. I only hope the stimulus packages declared for farmers and SMEs get similar positive support from the central bank for speedy and inclusive economic recovery.

Secondly, the continuation of cash incentives of two percent on the remittance also deserves to be applauded, as this has helped formalize the inward inflow of remittance. More could be done to create more innovative savings products like green bonds/sukuks in addition to the existing treasury, premium, and other bonds, which may be operated digitally by Bangladesh Bank and other authorized dealers in commercial banks.

Thirdly, while the continued support to the RMGs by the budget is well taken, a level playing field should be created for other exporting industries to achieve much-needed export diversification and growth of other world-class entrepreneurs as the country moves out of the LDC group.

Emphasis on Social Protection

The 18 percent increase in social protection allocation of Taka one trillion crore-plus shows the government’s commitment to respond to the needs of the extreme poor, whose numbers must have increased significantly in the pandemic. If the pandemic persists, there may be a need for more allocations in this sector. There must be a special focus on the urban poor, who are mostly climate refugees and hardly have any access to social security programs like the ones available in rural areas.

There must be special relief or social protection allocations to the bordering districts where Covid infections have gone up astronomically, leading to local hard lockdowns. The livelihood challenges in these districts have intensified manifold in recent days. The government made a smart move by pledging to provide significant corporate tax breaks to enterprises that will employ at least 10 percent or 100 employees from disadvantaged segments of the society, including the third gender population, snake-charmers (bede), and minority ethnic groups. This minimum number of employees could be a barrier for some enterprises in getting this tax benefit. Flexibility with a proportionate approach could be a better option. No doubt, these are positive moves. However, unless there is an attempt at digital real-time monitoring of the actual recipients and payments made through a digital financial system, there will always be a scope for leakages here. Fortunately, the government has started using mobile financial systems to reach the beneficiaries, and I am sure more will happen in this direction. For that matter, we need to have more credible databases prepared in a participatory manner to manage social protection programs efficiently.

The Education Budget

Education is yet another sector that deserves more focused attention from the government. The budget has allocated 16 percent for mainstream and technical education, which ought to be increased to more than 20 percent in line with the strategic plan of the sector. The learning loss of rural students, as well as a substantial portion of urban students, has indeed been significantly high. Fallouts like dropping out, early marriage of rural adolescent girls, and loss of income of the teachers in private educational institutions must have occurred at alarming rates.

Money alone cannot address these challenges. We need to decentralize our educational system and infuse more qualified teachers if we want to improve the quality of our education. We may have to develop a blended campus with enough digital infrastructures for the educational institutions. The budget was quite shy on the digital divide, and the cost of internet and devices should have been reduced by providing tax incentives to the provider.

Of course, the BTRC has given a regulation on the single rate of data sale throughout the country, which could offer some relief to rural users. The government could also think about more intensive use of the four terrestrial television channels for virtual teaching purposes, which could be useful to the rural community where the quality of teaching remains low. Taxing private universities was not a good move either.

Resource Mobilization

So far, we have been talking about allocations and tax waivers; what about the revenue mobilization? The revenue target for the NBR has been set realistically lower in this budget, considering the impact of the pandemic. This is okay. Nevertheless, the budget could have given some strategic directions to the NBR on the urgent need for its reforms and modernization. The CAG is apparently working with the NBR to digitize its accounting system in alignment with other government accounts.

The government accounts are getting the benefit of electronic fund transfer, automatic clearinghouse, and other state of the art payment settlement systems of Bangladesh Bank. Why shouldn’t NBR take this opportunity and make its payment system more digital and transparent as desired by the CAG? I wish good luck to the CAG for making this happen. The NBR should also enhance its capacity in terms of more trained human resources, new recruitments, allocation of more officials to follow up on thousands of pending cases in the courts, and appointment of a smarter panel of lawyers to fight those unresolved cases involving stuck up of more than Taka forty-one thousand crores. It can also push for ADRs to quickly settle the cases.

Moreover, there must be a Carrot and Stick policy to give a signal to the would-be taxpayers that they will get better public services if they are in the tax net. The NBR can also take the help of the established research institutes to carry out surveys on the new taxpayers. The rural growth centers are potential sources of new taxpayers. Also, the NBR could have collected more revenue from the tobacco sector if it were taxed more across the board. Tobacco is at the root of many non-communicable diseases. Smokers are easier victims of Covid-19 as well. So, why so soft on the tobacco enterprises? At the same time, NBR could not be similarly soft to the MFS providers. Their corporate tax rates have been jacked up from 2.5 percent to 7.5 percent. Indeed, this is a punishment for these fintechs that did so much to keep the payment system afloat during the pandemic, particularly for the lower-income groups and smaller startups and SMEs.

The proposed budget has a deficit of 6.2 percent, which will be borrowed from international financial and development agencies, as well as from domestic sources, including the banking sector. Given the comfortable Tax-GDP ratio, there is almost no threat of a rise in inflation. This proportion of budget deficit looks fine to me, given that our revenue collection remains so low.

Let me end this piece by refocusing on the health sector, which has been allocated only 5.4 percent of the budget, including a block allocation ofTaka Ten thousand crore for the purchase and management of vaccines. This cautious allocation to health must be due to the lack of capacity and ‘reputation’ of efficient and transparent spending of the money. However, there is a need for immediate reform of this sector. There must be better monitoring, preferably with digital technology, of the public spending on health by either the Ministry of Finance or a joint committee to bring back public confidence in this lagging sector.

Concluding Remarks

Finally, allocations alone will not take us far in meeting the challenges of the pandemic as the availability of vaccines remains a big hurdle. Until most of our population is vaccinated, we must continue to campaign for the adoption of masking culture, social distancing, and hand washing. And here, there must be a ‘whole of society’ approach. The government alone cannot accomplish all this. Social mobilization by the local governments, NGOs, media, social help groups, academia is a must for the universal mass wearing of masks to tide over the second and subsequent waves of coronavirus.

The budget should come up with immediate emergency allocations, not necessarily a big amount, for this part of the Covid response. The new regulation by Bangladesh Bank on CSR support for social responsibility to the pandemic can also be helpful now. Here, the benefit of public-private partnership can be seriously explored. While both lives and livelihoods matter, the former matters more than the latter.

Dr. Atiur Rahman
The author is Bangabandhu Chair Professor, Dhaka University
and
Former Governor, Bangladesh Bank.
He can be reached at [email protected]

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