Following a drop in global edible oil stocks and a fall in export surpluses, including the impact of the war in Ukraine, analyst James Fry predicted that palm oil prices might approach a new high of $1,938 per tonne in the coming months in Malaysia.
He predicted that Malaysian crude palm oil prices would vary between 6,600 and 8,100 ringgit per tonne until July, before falling to 6,200-7,000 ringgit in the third and fourth quarters as supply and demand balance out. “There is no alternative to letting high prices do the job of restraining demand from balancing the market,” said Fry, head of agriculture consultancy LMC International, during an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.
On 9th March, 2022, the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange’s benchmark palm oil contract for May delivery traded at roughly $1,583 per tonne. So far this year, prices have climbed by 38%. According to Fry, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, up to 60% of Black Sea sunflower oil shipments, or 8 million tonnes, will be delayed. “We predicted a month ago that Black Sea sun oil shipments would increase by more than 2 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes in 2021/22. The question now is how much money will be lost as a result of the invasion, “he stated
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